A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
